published in Postimees, 31 March 2023

On Monday at long last, Hungary ratified Finland’s NATO application after more than 9 months of hesitation. Members of Fidesz celebrated the day as the triumph of good diplomacy, opposition MPs condemned it as a waste of time and tanking international relationships with longtime allies. The extremist right-wing party, Mi Hazánk (Meie Isamaa) voted against, arguing that NATO expansion increases the risk of a new world war. But really, why did Orbán’s government wait for so long? What was his game in the long run, and did he achieve it?

In all truth, there is no simple answer for that. There are no immediate gains for Orbán in this. He had promised the ratification on numerous occasions, and during the diplomatic visits to the two countries in March, Hungary didn’t tie the issue to any preconditions.

If you ask Fidesz, they’d tell you they needed time for a conscious and well-informed decision, and they would condemn the opposition that would have “rushed” the acceptance without much consideration. They would also complain about the numerous occasions when Finnish and Swedish politicians allegedly insulted various Hungarians MPs and the Prime Minister himself, creating an air of mistrust, which could only be reserved by gaining “reassurance” from their Swedish and Finnish counterparts through diplomatic visits.

Fidesz would say all of these things. They do not expect the international community to believe it, this explanation is mainly for their own voters. Never mind that the foreign minister handed in the draft bill for the ratification in mid-July 2022. Never mind it was promised then postponed, promised then postponed over and over throughout the fall and winter, unnerving the international community. Amidst vague guesses and half-answers, there was always something more important to discuss in the Parliament. Or something to be offended about.

Those critical of Orbán’s regime would link all this peacock dance to his increasing loyalty to Vladimir Putin, his attempt to blackmail the EU into granting the funds that were put on hold for corruption concerns (a plan that did not quite work out – most of those funds are still blocked), or simple just-because-I-can pettiness – a quality he is not a stranger to. Some may point out that Hungary always makes its decision after Turkey, as if Orbán was expecting guidance from Erdogan.

These observations, while true on their own, also fit into the bigger picture regarding Orbán’s foreign policy. For the longest time, he has enjoyed playing a double-sided game, constantly flirting with Eastern partnerships while reaping the benefits of an EU membership. The EU tolerated this behavior because despite his conservative strongman narrative, Orbán eventually wasn’t a bad partner to do business with – at least not until the war. He is on famously good terms with German car manufacturers, and does cooperate with other member states, after he has done his weird round of dissing them in the press, then positioning himself as the only competent party that saved the day.

But what many might have missed, and which is becoming more and more clear, is that Orbán is not interested in autocratic regimes because of mere economical interest. In fact, they are his people and he is one of them. This loose conglomeration of actual or aspiring dictators, which the historian Anne Applebaum calls Autocracy Inc., have long helped each other on the international scene. They are not tied together by any ideology or moral compass: some are conservatives, others are socialists or theocrats. These state leaders’ common mission is solely to stay in power at any cost necessary, and as such, they perfectly understand each other. They have long helped weaken the effect of Western boycotts and sanctions, or represent each other’s interests on the international scene.

These times are not the best for the members of Autocracy Inc. The system only works as long as the state leader in question is indeed the strongest in his land, and many autocrats from Putin to Bolsonaro and Trump, and most recently Netanyahu have suffered massive blows to their power. But Orbán will not be the first to jump the boat: after all, making Hungary an autocracy is his life’s work. In the European Union, he of course doesn’t have any other choice than to ratify both Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership. This epic delay might be shrewd opportunism, as well as a wink to his allies: I have to play by the rules but I actually like you guys more.

Was it worth destroying Hungary’s diplomatic relations with Finland and Sweden, and undermining its credit in the Western world? Time may tell him the answer. But knowing the Finns, they will not forget this.