On 17 February, Viktor Orbán held his annual evaluation of the year. He did so without a president, and without a leader of his party’s list in the upcoming EU elections – both of them resigned a week before. In his 14 years of leading Hungary, neither him nor his government have ever looked so weak.

The President of Hungary, Katalin Novák announced her resignation on 10 February. Her career ended when the press revealed that in April 2023 she had pardoned the deputy headmaster of an orphanage, who helped the pedophile headmaster cover up his molestation of childen, and tried to force the underage victims to withdraw their accusation. A few minutes later Judit Varga, who had ratified the pardon, and who until then was the leader of the party’s list in the upcoming EU elections, announced her withdrawal from public affairs.

The case was hard to fathom from the beginning. Who would pardon a pedophile’s aide? It is one of the most disgusting crimes a person can commit. Moreover, Viktor Orbán’s ruling party Fidesz prides itself in its family-friendly politics, and Katalin Novák, former Minister of Family Affairs, devout member of the Hungarian reformed church, and herself a mother of three, was the public face of this endeavour. Why did she grant this pardon?

We know the Ministry of Justice didn’t think this was a good idea. The Ministry, which receives all appeals to presidential pardon, suggested rejecting this appeal, but the President still proceeded with granting it. Then justice minister – Judit Varga – eventually ratified the pardon. She could have denied to do so, and the decision would have never come into force. This suggests that someone really wanted the deputy headmaster free, and had enough leverage to not only have Katalin Novák ignore the lawyers’ suggestion, but Judit Varga to go against her own ministry, too.

Of course, suspicion quickly turned towards Viktor Orbán. After all, both Novák and Varga were his creation and represented his politics. And yet: as unbelievable as it seems, most likely he did not know about the pardon. He was blindsided by his own people: the person that lobbied it out was Zoltán Balog, Bishop of the Hungarian Reformed Church, and longtime close ally to Orbán. He had been even closer to Novák, acting as his mentor and spiritual leader throughout her career. Allegedly, staff members had long complained about Balog regularly showing up at the Presidential Palace, and meddling with state issues like a modern-day Rasputin, abusing his influence over the President. Various sources claimed it was Balog who requested Novák to grant the pardon to the deputy headmaster, whose family had close ties with high-ranking members of the Hungarian Reformed Church.

Initially, though Balog admitted his influence, he refused to take responsibility. This caused an enormous moral crisis within the church, which 10% of the Hungarians, including Viktor Orbán and myself, belong to. Upon immense pressure, he resigned from being President of the Reformed Synod, but he is still a bishop.

And Orbán is furious. Based on his Saturday speech, quite obviously he’s living an autocrat’s worst nightmare.

First, his own people put his name in jeopardy. Fidesz is famously disciplined and hierarchical, and nothing gets said or done without the consent of Orbán and his closest advisers. In this system, a private stunt like pardoning a pedophile’s aide behind his back is almost unbelievable disobedience.

Second, it was the independent media that exposed him. He spent so much money and effort on suppressing any media outlets that are not under his control. Yet, the scandal erupted on 444.hu, one of the few portals independent of his media apparatus. If the rumors are true, he himself learned what happened from those articles.

Naturally, massive protests erupted in the wake of the scandal. Tens of thousands of people gathered on Heroes’ Square on 16 February to express their outrage at a system that lets bishops protect orphaned children’s molesters while posing as religious and family-centered. Many of the protesters had not gone on the streets since 1989. The demonstration was special also because it was not organized by opposition parties but by popular influencers and musicians.

But let’s be honest: as someone who’s been protesting the system since 2012, I know all too well demonstrations have no real impact. Orbán’s system is not shaken by some tens of thousands of people on Heroes’ Square. His system was shaken when he polled his own supporters, and learned they were just as appalled by this pardon. It’s the pious, rural, conservative Fidesz voters who forced him into retreat.

Orbán clearly did not want to lose Novák, Varga or Balog. But his empire was shot in the heart by this disgusting case. He had to sacrifice his soldiers, which he almost never does. He handled the scandal with utmost professionalism, but it was still an emergency measure.

These are signs of a country that hasn’t completely succumbed into autocracy. Despite all his efforts, even Orbán can’t get away with anything.

In his annual evaluation speech, he tried to waste as few words on the scandal as he could. He emphasized looking into the future. In reality, he still doesn’t know what to say about it.

Whatever the future holds, it will be interesting to watch.