Now that Donald Trump has won the presidential elections, many wonder what’s to come. Knowing Trump’s style of leadership and his numerous comments disregarding democratic institutions (he famously said that after he is elected, American people will no longer have to vote), many see him as an aspiring despot who will eventually reframe American politics into autocracy. His emergence has also been likened to other countries that have in the past years taken an autocratic turn: Erdoğan’s Turkey, Vučić’s Serbia, and, of course Viktor Orbán’s Hungary. Will Trump turn America into Hungary’s direction?

Viktor Orbán has long been seen as the model example to follow for aspiring autocrats, especially in Europe. Before he turned out to be an agent of Russia, he even had sizable support in Estonia, mainly by EKRE politicians and voters. They saw him as a “freedom fighter” who stands up against Brussels’ bureaucrats and the emerging progressive values (LGBTQ+, immigration-friendliness, climate consciousness etc.) threatening their sovererignity and way of life.

Trump has a similar profile. He promised to “drain the swamp” of the Washington elite when he first got elected in 2016. In his current campaign, fighting immigration was one of his main topics to cover. He clearly knows how to channel Americans’ love for freedom and self-determination.

Yet, it’s only been the last few years the two men have become close. Orbán has always stood behind Trump – even before his election in 2016, when nobody thought he’d have a chance. Trump however only gave him attention after Orbán had still supported him after his election loss in 2020. Later Orbán was actively propagating himself in American media: in 2021, he appeared in Fox News, inviting Tucker Carlson to Hungary, selling him his idealized version of the country where people are happy to live in traditional families with conservative values. Trump congratulated Orbán on his 3rd reelection in 2022, and Orbán supported his reelection campaign. Trump has praised Orbán multiple times (although he once accidentally called him the President of Turkey). Famously this year, Orbán visited Trump on his estate in Mar-a-Lago in the summer, after having visited Putin, Xi Chin Ping and the NATO summit in Washington. This November, Orbán followed the US presidential election from Kyrgyzstan while attending the Council of Heads of State of the Organization of Turkic States (Hungary is not enthusiastic about being Finno-Ugric), and he was one of the first to congratulate Trump on his victory.

The two men clearly have similar goals and ideas. They both have successfully made their respective parties their own group of loyal followers without question. But they have very different countries, and, well, personalities.

The secret of Orbán’s power is his ⅔ overmajority in the Hungarian Parliament. This enables him to pass any law he wants. He won the elections in May 2010, and in April 2011, the Parliament passed an entirely new Constitution. Also in 2011 the voting system was redesigned heavily in favor of the incumbent ruling party, making it extremely difficult for him and his party to be replaced.

Another pillar of Orbán’s power is his control of the media. State media conveys nothing but his propaganda, and many private media channels as well. He has successfully forced many independednt and opposition-friendly outlets to shut down or retreat to much smaller platforms than before. Nowadays, to access information that’s not controlled by the state propaganda apparatus requires conscious effort for Hungarians – and most people won’t put in the conscious effort. They hardly bother to read.

Trump on the other hand, although having significant power as president, has no such complicit Parliament to work in his favor. Republicans have recently won majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives (and he’s been long holding the Supreme Court as well), but this still doesn’t give him power like Orbán has in Hungary. Many members vote out of party lines, and the next elections for these institutions are coming in just two years. Even if Trump wanted to dismantle the whole system, he’d hardly be able to do it even with all the help he has, and he’ll still have to face the massive autonomy individual states have. It is likely that Trump would like to assault and try to dismantle democratic institutions. But he can hardly have the American Constitution rewritten, or the voting system redesigned within a year, like Orbán did – even if he wanted to.

And he can’t control all the media. The US does not have a state media, so he cannot just seize power over all the major outlets. That is a major hindrance – Orbán hasn’t made it a secret that controlling the media is essential to his system. Trump of course has now Elon Musk and other tech bros on his side, who manipulate algothythms to prefer right-wing content, but – for better or for worse – it is not the overcentralized, carefully curated state apparatus that is the Hungarian model.

Another major difference between Donald Trump and Viktor Orbán lies in their personalities. Viktor Orbán is a strategist, and he prides himself in being a visionary. Having been a politician all his life, and having always wanted to be Prime Minister, he is used to thinking in the long run, and, if possible, two steps ahead of everyone. To his credit, he often succeeds. He successfully foresaw the 2015 European migrant crisis, and his early (and continuing) endorsement of Trump has also borne fruit in the long run. He hasn’t been infallible – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, for example, did take him by surprise. But he’s happy to take risks, he’s unphased by criticism, and even teaches his apprentices to “enjoy hate”.

Trump, on the other hand, is not only significantly older, but more fragile than Orbán in every regard. He’s famously influencable, he often changes his mind, and is much easier to offend. This probably will define other politicians’ attitude towards him, who will probably try to influence him to their will. This is hardly the same attitude they’d have with Orbán.

In conclusion: in 2010, Hungary had a very stable, determined prime minister elected into an unstable democracy. In 2024, the US had a very unstable president elected into a still quite stable democracy.

They might want similar things. They might strengthen their relationship. But they have different cards to play.